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5 Shocking Truths About Eggs Cost Today: Why Prices Plunged 50% In December 2025

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The volatility of the egg market has never been more extreme, with prices swinging wildly across 2025, culminating in a dramatic plunge in December. As of late December 2025, consumers are experiencing a temporary reprieve, with the average retail cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs showing a significant decrease from the peaks seen earlier in the year. This sharp decline is a direct response to recovering inventories and a temporary easing of the pressures that drove prices to near-record highs, yet the underlying risks remain a major concern for both producers and shoppers.

The journey of egg prices throughout 2025 has been a rollercoaster, primarily fueled by the devastating impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). While the average retail price for a dozen eggs had soared to over $5.00 in the first half of the year, recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates a major shift, making it crucial to understand the current market dynamics and what the future holds for this essential kitchen staple.

The Current Price Reality: December 2025 Egg Cost Breakdown

The most recent data paints a picture of a market in flux, showing a clear distinction between wholesale and retail prices, and a massive drop from the highs of early 2025. Understanding the difference between the national wholesale index and the retail price you pay at the grocery store is key to grasping the true cost of eggs today.

National Average Retail Price for a Dozen Eggs

The good news for shoppers is the noticeable drop in the average retail price. Data released in December 2025 shows the average price for one dozen Grade A large eggs in U.S. city averages fell to approximately $2.86. This represents a substantial decrease from the price of $3.488 reported just a few months prior in September. Furthermore, this current price is a world away from the peak prices seen in April 2025, which averaged $5.12 a dozen, or the all-time highs that briefly neared $8.17 per dozen earlier in the year.

Wholesale Price Plunge: The $1.01 Index

The wholesale market, which is a leading indicator for future retail costs, saw an even more dramatic decline. The national FOB (Free On Board) weighted average price for white large eggs dropped sharply to $1.01 per dozen on December 19, 2025. This wholesale price decline of nearly 55% over the past month indicates a massive increase in inventory and a temporary stabilization in the supply chain. This wholesale index is a critical entity monitored by the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) and reflects the price producers are getting before distribution and retail markups.

The Primary Culprits: Why 2025 Egg Prices Reached Historic Highs

The price volatility of 2025 was not a result of a single factor but a perfect storm of biological and economic pressures. The primary driver, which continues to pose a major risk to the market, is the ongoing battle against avian disease.

  • Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) Outbreak: The single most significant factor driving the record-setting egg prices in 2025 was the outbreak of HPAI, specifically the H5N1 strain. This outbreak was the most severe since the 2022 crisis, leading to the culling of over 20 million egg-laying hens in the U.S. commercial flock. The loss of these laying hens created an immediate and severe supply shortage, causing prices to rise dramatically.
  • Inflation and Production Costs: General economic inflation played a major role, amplifying the effects of the supply shortage. The cost of essential inputs for egg production, such as chicken feed (primarily corn and soybeans), energy, and labor, remained high. These elevated production costs mean that even when supply stabilizes, the floor price for eggs is significantly higher than in previous years.
  • Supply Chain and Inventory Lag: The process of rebuilding the layer flock after an HPAI outbreak is slow. It takes months for new pullets to mature into productive egg-laying hens. The price plunge in December 2025 suggests that inventory levels have finally started to climb back to a yearly high, easing the immediate pressure on the supply chain.
  • Seasonal Demand Fluctuation: Egg demand is often seasonal, peaking during holidays like Easter and Thanksgiving. The market typically sees a dip following these periods, which can contribute to the price decline observed in late 2025.

Future Outlook: Conflicting Forecasts for 2026 and Beyond

Looking ahead, the market for eggs remains highly uncertain, with experts providing conflicting projections for 2026. The future price trajectory hinges almost entirely on the containment of avian influenza and the stability of global commodity markets.

The Optimistic Forecast: A Return to Lower Prices

Some projections from entities like the USDA and agricultural analysts suggest that the price decline seen in late 2025 will continue into the new year. The average price of eggs, which was estimated at 403.7 cents per dozen for the entirety of 2025, is forecasted to decline significantly to an average of 230 cents (or $2.30) per dozen in the first quarter of 2026. Another projection for the full year of 2026 is slightly lower, at 211.3 cents per dozen. This positive outlook is based on the assumption that egg production will continue to increase and that there will be no major resurgence of the HPAI crisis.

The Pessimistic Forecast: Another Price Spike Looms

Conversely, other market experts warn that the current price dip is merely a temporary fluctuation before another spike. One expert projected that overall egg prices could go up by 24 percent in 2026. This pessimistic view is rooted in the persistent threat of HPAI, which has shown a capacity to spread rapidly and impact millions of birds, potentially wiping out inventory gains in a single week, as has been seen in the past. The global nature of the disease, affecting not just the U.S. but also regions like Chile, means that international supply chains are also vulnerable.

Key Entities to Watch for Price Stability

The stability of the egg market depends on several key entities and factors:

  • The Avian Influenza Virus: The most unpredictable factor. Any new major outbreak will immediately halt the recovery of the layer flock and send prices spiraling upward again.
  • Feed Commodity Prices: The cost of corn and soybean futures directly influences the cost of feeding the hens, which is a significant component of the overall production cost.
  • Consumer Demand: Strong demand, especially during peak seasons or due to panic buying, can quickly deplete inventories and drive up retail prices, even if wholesale prices are stable.
  • USDA Inventory Reports: The weekly reports on shell egg inventory and the Daily National Shell Egg Index Report are the best indicators of the immediate supply situation.

In conclusion, the cost of eggs today in late December 2025 is a story of temporary relief. The average retail price of $2.86 per dozen is a welcome sight for consumers after a year of unprecedented high prices. However, the market remains fragile, balanced precariously on the edge of another potential HPAI outbreak. While the current price plunge is a positive sign of recovering inventory, consumers should remain prepared for continued volatility and the possibility of another price surge in 2026 if the virus is not contained.

5 Shocking Truths About Eggs Cost Today: Why Prices Plunged 50% in December 2025
eggs cost today
eggs cost today

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